"The War In Medicine"
CONTINUED FROM EARLIER POSTHe then stated that even if it could create 300 proteins, there
is an absurdly small probability that these 300 proteins would
form a set of proteins that could support the life of a new
organism. He did not give a probability for this because there
isn't enough known about sets of proteins.
You quickly do some math in your head. You remember from
science class that there are 1080 atoms in our universe. Then,
you imagine there are 1029,920 universes just like ours in a
cluster (that is a one followed by 29,920 zeros). All of these
universes combined would have 1030,000 atoms.
Suppose some government wants to do a lottery and in order to
win the lottery you have to pick the single, correct atom from
among all of the atoms in the 1029,920 universes. The probability
of winning this lottery is 10-30,000. You ask yourself: "who is
so bad at math they would buy a ticket in that lottery?"
Then you remember what your math teacher taught you: "the lottery
is a tax on people who are bad at math." Then you realize there
are a lot of people who would spend their life savings buying
lottery tickets in that lottery. Finally, you come out of your
daydreaming and realize that Hermann was talking while you
were doing the math in your head.
Then you hear about the ridiculous probability of the first cell
membrane forming by accident. For two hours Hermann gives you
an earful about how incredibly complex a eukaryotic cell is. It
is so complex that even the exobiologists admit that one could
not form by accident from a prebiotic pool. Thus, they claim
that the first cell was a prokaryotic cell, and that there are
conditions where a prokaryotic cell can survive without an
organic host (since this is the first cell, there are no organic
hosts to feed on). But even so, Hermann tells you that prokaryotic
cells still could not have formed by accident because they are
almost as complex as eukaryotic cells.
Then you hear that the first DNA and first cell membrane could
not have formed in the same prebiotic pool, and thus you are
told it was virtually impossible that they could ever get together.
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